Ev Poker

In other words, this one is not a smart bet! In poker, expected value still defines the average outcome when taking into account the probability of certain events.

With so many situations where probability dictates the outcome, it stands to reason that the concept of expected value will apply a lot in poker situations.

Let's look at our EV formula, and state that situation X is the one where we bet, he raises, and we fold. Situation Y is where we bet and he calls.

Situation Z is where we bet and he folds. We know that each of his possible poker hands is equally likely 2 aces left, times the specific other card means two combos each , and there are 8 total hands he can have.

So we can quickly determine the probability that he holds each type of hand. Steve June 13, James January 9, Kat Martin January 9, To find out if at least one of them holds a K, we calculate the probability that neither of them holds a K This is given by 1 — 0.

Thus the probability at least one of them holds a K is 0. Tad Richards October 15, Thanks for your help, Tad. Let's start with an example from the everyday world.

If you meet the conductor at least once per week, then you will lose on not buying your ticket. This will result in a -EV decision.

That's what expected value is showing you. Those final numbers are the average values per trip of you repetitively not buying the train ticket.

Bad news? You can calculate it accurately only when you know exactly when your train is checked by conductors. You'll see that position is a great factor in expected value, as hands in later position almost always win the most of any hand and also have a consistent pattern at winning money.

If you can combine this knowledge as well as remembering which hands are strong overall, you can easily learn which hands are playable and which are not.

Villain Calls and You Lose: 0. So long as this read is well founded, your shove is great. What if the Villain was a very tight player instead?

In that case, your EV goes way down, since the likelihood of you shove getting called goes way up.

For example, suppose the Villain is a tight player who would only bet on the turn with strong hands. He starts gloating about how well he played the hand.

He feels that since he won the hand, his move was correct. Sometimes a novice player with KK will even question their call afterward just because they lost.

What you should do is look at your play and ask yourself whether it's profitable in the long run. That is, put whatever the actual outcome was out of your mind and look at it objectively.

In this case it's easy. You flopped top set, which is the stone-cold nuts on that board. Should you call his all-in?

Absolutely - your call shows a positive expectation over the long term. What we should always try to do as poker players is look for the best move the move with the highest expectation at any given time.